SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 9, 2026
Creator

Will Brumbies win?

Probability

35¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+4.0pp

24h Vol

$22.22

Liquidity

$1.7K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 9, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (9.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-8.5pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 14:00Apr 30, 2026, 13:36
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 35¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 9.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 212.0h

    LOW
  • 13:36Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+4.0pp over the last 24h, now 35¢.

Biggest hourly move: -16.0pp at 07:00 (to 28¢).

Show top 8 of 32 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · -16.0pp → 28¢
  • 06:00 · -15.5pp → 28¢
  • 05:00 · -15.0pp → 28¢
  • 03:00 · -15.0pp → 28¢
  • 01:00 · -15.0pp → 28¢
  • 00:00 · -15.0pp → 28¢
  • 23:00 · -15.0pp → 28¢
  • 1d ago · -14.5pp → 29¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming game, scheduled for May 2 2026 If Brumbies wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "No". This market refers only to the outcome when the ball becomes dead after 80 minutes of regular play.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

2 wallets