AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5
Probability
31¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$272.59
Liquidity
$7.3K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.3k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 86.8h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 31¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 23¢+0.5
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 10¢-1.5
Spread: Atalanta BC (-1.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 10¢+0.5
Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 3¢0.0
Spread: Atalanta BC (-2.5)
Sports · Vol $1.11
- 78¢-0.5
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 1.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
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AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $16.66
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AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 4.5
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AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score
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- 0¢-22.4
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
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New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
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Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
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Market Description
In the upcoming Serie A game between AC Milan and Atalanta BC, scheduled for May 10 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if AC Milan and Atalanta BC combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on legaseriea.it. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ac milanReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "ac milan" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 3.5"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 03:54:42 GMT, YES is priced at 31% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 10, 2026 (2026-05-10T18:45:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.legaseriea.it/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$272.59 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $272.59. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.3K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
