Sharjah announces secession from UAE by May 31?
Probability
1¢
1h
-0.7pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.8K
Liquidity
$23.0K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $23.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
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Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 676.6h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Ruler of Sharjah, the Sharjah Executive Council, or another official Sharjah governing authority officially and definitively announces that the Emirate of Sharjah, or a majority of the territory of Sharjah, will leave, secede from, or otherwise cease to be part of the United Arab Emirates by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying announcement may state that Sharjah will become an independent state, join another state, or otherwise cease to be a constituent emirate of the United Arab Emirates. Only official and definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, statements of consideration, calls for independence, rumors, unofficial reports, social media claims, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Routine border adjustments, municipal reorganizations, or changes to Sharjah’s local governance will not qualify unless they explicitly declare that Sharjah, or a majority of the territory of Sharjah, will leave or cease to be part of the United Arab Emirates. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Ruler of Sharjah, the Sharjah Executive Council, or other official Sharjah government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
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