What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 9?"?

As of Mon, 04 May 2026 00:08:29 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.3pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 9, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $0.00. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $5.1K.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/solana-above-100-on-may-9 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/solana-above-100-on-may-9/markdown.

CryptoExpires May 9, 2026

Creator

Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 9?

Probability

2¢

+0.0pp

24h

-0.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$5.1K

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 9, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 2, 2026, 17:00May 4, 2026, 00:08

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor

01
Spread cost
Wide spread — 4.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 9, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type: Binary

Wide spread (4.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 135.9h
LOW

Price movement

-0.3pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

No holder data from the Data API.

Open on Polymarket