CryptoExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 11?

Probability

90¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

+13.0pp

24h Vol

$131.74

Liquidity

$6.2K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 41h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 4, 2026, 17:00May 9, 2026, 23:22
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-09T23-22Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 13pp over 24h

    Now 90¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 41h.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 41 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 40.6h

    HIGH
  • 23:22Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 41h.

    LOW

Price movement

+13.0pp over the last 24h, now 90¢.

Biggest hourly move: +62.5pp at 15:00 (to 91¢).

Show top 8 of 48 hourly moves
  • 18:00 · +52.0pp → 90¢
  • 17:00 · +53.0pp → 88¢
  • 15:00 · +62.5pp → 91¢
  • 14:00 · +56.0pp → 92¢
  • 13:00 · +55.0pp → 92¢
  • 03:00 · +55.5pp → 85¢
  • 02:00 · +52.5pp → 88¢
  • 1d ago · +48.5pp → 80¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventSolana above ___ on May 11?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

solana

Reason

Question text contains "solana" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 11?"?

As of Sat, 09 May 2026 23:22:41 GMT, YES is priced at 90% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +13.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$131.74 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $159.77. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $6.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket