Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5
Probability
24¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-1.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$7.4K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 3h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
-16.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 24¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 3h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:30ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 3.2h
- 21:19SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 3h.
Price movement
-1.5pp over the last 24h, now 24¢.
Biggest hourly move: -12.0pp at 4d ago (to 28¢).
Show top 8 of 23 hourly moves
- 21:00 · -5.0pp → 23¢
- 12:00 · -5.0pp → 23¢
- 10:00 · -5.5pp → 23¢
- 09:00 · -5.5pp → 23¢
- 00:00 · -5.5pp → 23¢
- 4d ago · -12.0pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · -12.0pp → 28¢
- 4d ago · -12.0pp → 28¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
11- 18¢-0.5
Spread: Botafogo FR (-1.5)
Other · Vol $57.00
- 11¢-0.5
Spread: Racing Club (-1.5)
Other · Vol $111.11
- 7¢-0.5
Spread: Botafogo FR (-2.5)
Other · Vol $40.64
- 3¢-0.7
Spread: Racing Club (-2.5)
Other · Vol $52.00
- 71¢-2.0
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5
Other · Vol $0.00
- 45¢-2.5
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5
Other · Vol $140.70
- 10¢-1.5
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 4.5
Other · Vol $29.91
- 52¢-1.5
Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: Both Teams to Score
Other · Vol $11.54
Market Description
In the upcoming Copa Sudamericana game between Botafogo FR and Racing Club, scheduled for May 6 at 8:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Botafogo FR and Racing Club combine to score 4 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 4, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on conmebol.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Botafogo FR vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 21:19:12 GMT, YES is priced at 24% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and -16.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T00:30:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.conmebol.com/sudamericana/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
