The Day: Naoya Inoue vs. Junto Nakatani
Probability
83¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+3.5pp
24h Vol
$42.6K
Liquidity
$7.2K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 01Price move
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 83¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Volume pressure
Heavy volume on this book — 5.9× turnover
$42.6k traded against $7.2k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 35h.
- 04Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $7.2k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 35 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 35.4h
- 12:38SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 35h.
Price movement
+3.5pp over the last 24h, now 83¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Inoue" if Naoya Inoue is officially declared the winner of the fight against Junto Nakatani, scheduled for May 3, 2026 at the Tokyo Dome in Tokyo, Japan. It will resolve to "Nakatani" if Junto Nakatani is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Japanese Boxing Commission; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.