Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $320 end of April?
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$436.54
Liquidity
$3.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $3.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 124.9h
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 94¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.9pp
to 97¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.4pp
to 97¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
9- 91¢-5.6pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $330 end of April?
Business · Vol $5.42
- 92¢-3.4pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $340 end of April?
Business · Vol $21.72
- 19¢+4.5pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of April?
Business · Vol $27.14
- 12¢+4.5pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $410 end of April?
Business · Vol $1.88
- 4¢+0.8pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of April?
Business · Vol $40.00
- 99¢-0.6pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $310 end of April?
Business · Vol $249.96
- 84¢-4.5pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of April?
Business · Vol $8.84
- 76¢-3.0pp
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of April?
Business · Vol $86.88
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).