Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 4.5
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
-12.5pp
24h Vol
$87.31
Liquidity
$1.1K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-17.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 13pp over 24h
Now 12¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 17¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 5, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 118.7h
Price movement
-12.5pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: +21.5pp at 2d ago (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
- 20:00 · -17.0pp → 12¢
- 18:00 · -17.0pp → 12¢
- 17:00 · -17.0pp → 12¢
- 15:00 · -16.5pp → 12¢
- 14:00 · -17.5pp → 11¢
- 13:00 · -17.0pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 50¢
- 2d ago · +21.5pp → 50¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game between Arsenal FC and Club Atlético de Madrid, scheduled for May 5 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Arsenal FC and Club Atlético de Madrid combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Alerts
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