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OtherExpires Apr 29, 2026

Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5)

Probability

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+1.1pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$21.3K

Probability (last 7 days)

-8.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:55
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Up 1pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 5.9¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 100.1h

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -7.4pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 04:00Price

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 4¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.0pp

    to 5¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 6¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -32.5pp

    to 13¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability down -6.5pp

    to 7¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

In the upcoming UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for April 29 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Club Atlético de Madrid" if Club Atlético de Madrid win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Arsenal FC". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on uefa.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 29, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.uefa.com/News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (5.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).