Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to Advance
Probability
67¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$41.32
Liquidity
$31.2K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: official statistics
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to Advance State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to Advance State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 26, 19:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 89.1h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 67¢.
Biggest hourly move: +14.5pp at Aug 21, 08:00 UTC (to 65¢).
Show top 8 of 19 hourly moves
- 18:00 · +3.5pp → 67¢
- 17:00 · +3.5pp → 67¢
- 15:00 · +3.5pp → 67¢
- 14:00 · +3.5pp → 67¢
- 13:00 · +3.5pp → 67¢
- 09:00 · +4.0pp → 67¢
- 07:00 · +4.0pp → 67¢
- Aug 21, 08:00 UTC · +14.5pp → 65¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
In the UEFA Champions League qualifying tie between Olympique Lyonnais and Fenerbahçe SK, with the deciding leg scheduled for August 26 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Olympique Lyonnais" if Olympique Lyonnais is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This market will resolve to "Fenerbahçe SK" if Fenerbahçe SK is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Champions League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics published by the governing body or event organizers. If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially published final statistics made after market resolution will not be considered in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 48 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
champions leagueReason
UEFA Champions League — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Olympique Lyonnais vs. Fenerbahçe SK: Team to Advance"?
As of Sun, 23 Aug 2026 01:54:30 GMT, YES is priced at 67% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 26, 2026 (2026-08-26T19:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.uefa.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.uefa.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$41.32 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $31.2K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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