SportsExpires Aug 13, 2026
Creator

Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to Advance

Probability

0¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$7.6K

Liquidity

$48.4K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
28
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$4k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$48k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Aug 13, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official statistics
Link
uefa.com
Type
Official statistics
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Aug 13, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-25.1pp 7d
1007550250
1¢
Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCAug 13, 2026, 15:32 UTC
updated 15:32:23 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-08-13T15-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $7.6k traded against $48.4k of visible liquidity (0.16× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 3h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 3 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

price pinned not settled
Trust transition

The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: official statistics

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Price is not settlement

required

Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.

Current evidence: 0¢ current price

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to Advance State: Pinned near NO — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to Advance State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 18:45Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3.2h

    HIGH
  • 15:32Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 3h.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.1pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -24.9pp at Aug 9, 04:00 UTC (to 1¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • Aug 9, 18:00 UTC · -22.1pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 15:00 UTC · -22.1pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 14:00 UTC · -22.1pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 11:00 UTC · -22.1pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 08:00 UTC · -23.9pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 06:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 05:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 1¢
  • Aug 9, 04:00 UTC · -24.9pp → 1¢
updated 15:32:23 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:32:23 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventHeart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica - More Markets
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the UEFA Europa League qualifying tie between Heart of Midlothian FC and Sport Lisboa e Benfica, with the deciding leg scheduled for August 13 at 2:45 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Heart of Midlothian FC" if Heart of Midlothian FC is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie, based on aggregate score across both legs, to the next stage of the UEFA Europa League. This market will resolve to "Sport Lisboa e Benfica" if Sport Lisboa e Benfica is the team that officially advances from this two-legged tie to the next stage of the UEFA Europa League. This includes advancement after regulation, extra time, a penalty shoot-out, or an official ruling by the competition organizer such as forfeit, abandonment, or disqualification. If either leg is postponed, this market will remain open until the tie has been completed or a team is officially declared to advance. If the tie is canceled entirely and no team advances, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

europa league

Reason

UEFA Europa League — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: Team to Advance"?

As of Thu, 13 Aug 2026 15:32:23 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.1pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -25.1pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Aug 13, 2026 (2026-08-13T18:45:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.uefa.com/.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.uefa.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$7.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $21.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $48.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

19 wallets
Open on Polymarket