UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Main Card)
Probability
55¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$637.38
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+20.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 265.5h
Price movement
+0.5pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.
Biggest hourly move: +24.0pp at 3d ago (to 54¢).
Show top 8 of 62 hourly moves
- 1d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +24.0pp → 56¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Arnold Allen" if Arnold Allen is officially declared the winner of the fight against Melquizael Costa at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Melquizael Costa" if Melquizael Costa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
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