UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims)
Probability
40¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+4.5pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$20.1K
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 5pp over 24h
Now 40¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $20.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 131.3h
Price movement
+4.5pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.5pp at 4d ago (to 29¢).
Show top 8 of 54 hourly moves
- 2d ago · +17.0pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +17.5pp → 40¢
- 2d ago · +17.0pp → 39¢
- 3d ago · +18.0pp → 39¢
- 4d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 4d ago · -24.0pp → 29¢
- 4d ago · -25.5pp → 29¢
- 4d ago · -17.5pp → 23¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Clayton Carpenter" if Clayton Carpenter is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jose Ochoa at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026. It will resolve to "Jose Ochoa" if Jose Ochoa is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
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