UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$313.84
Liquidity
$9.1K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-33.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.1k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 91.8h
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at 3d ago (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 26 hourly moves
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -24.0pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -22.0pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -20.5pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -20.0pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -19.5pp → 51¢
- 3d ago · -18.0pp → 52¢
- 3d ago · -17.0pp → 52¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Fight to Go the Distance?
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Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
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Will Daniel Barez win by KO or TKO?
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 38¢+11.0
Will Luis Gurule win by KO or TKO?
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- 40¢+12.0
Will the fight be won by submission?
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- 74¢0.0
O/U 0.5 Rounds
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Daniel Barez" if Daniel Barez is officially declared the winner of the fight against Luis Gurule at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Luis Gurule" if Luis Gurule is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)"?
As of Wed, 13 May 2026 08:14:42 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -0.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -33.5pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$313.84 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $742.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
