UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.5K
Liquidity
$29.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dResolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Aug 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Official UFC data
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims) State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official sports result source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims) State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Aug 9, 03:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 101.1h
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: -36.0pp at Aug 2, 11:00 UTC (to 14¢).
Show top 8 of 16 hourly moves
- Aug 2, 21:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 20:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 18:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 17:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 15:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 14:00 UTC · -35.5pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 12:00 UTC · -36.0pp → 14¢
- Aug 2, 11:00 UTC · -36.0pp → 14¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Darren Elkins" if Darren Elkins is officially declared the winner of the fight against Yadier del Valle at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld, scheduled for August 8, 2026. It will resolve to "Yadier del Valle" if Yadier del Valle is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 22, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "UFC Fight Night: Darren Elkins vs. Yadier del Valle (Featherweight, Prelims)"?
As of Tue, 04 Aug 2026 22:52:16 GMT, YES is priced at 14% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Aug 9, 2026 (2026-08-09T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$2.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $29.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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