SportsExpires Apr 26, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Probability

52¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-1.0pp

24h Vol

$15.2K

Liquidity

$19.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+5.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 20:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:00
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 1pp over 24h

    Now 52¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 10h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 10 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 03:59Resolve

    Market resolves in 10.0h

    HIGH
  • 18:00Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 10h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 52¢.

Biggest hourly move: +7.5pp at 2d ago (to 53¢).

Show all 4 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 2d ago · +7.5pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 53¢
  • 2d ago · +6.0pp → 53¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventUFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Davey Grant" if Davey Grant is officially declared the winner of the fight against Adrian Luna Martinetti at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Adrian Luna Martinetti" if Adrian Luna Martinetti is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
ufc.com
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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