UFC Fight Night: Dom Mar Fan vs. Kody Steele (Lightweight, Prelims)
Probability
44¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$2.0K
Liquidity
$887.14
Probability (last 7 days)
+4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $887 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 182.4h
- 13:34PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.5pp
to 44¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 44¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -16.0pp
to 44¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -15.0pp
to 44¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 44¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.5pp
to 44¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 45¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.0pp
to 45¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 46¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 46¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.0pp
to 46¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 28.5pp
to 46¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 45¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 27.5pp
to 45¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 43¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 19.5pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 16.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 38¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 33¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 37¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 49¢0.0pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢-0.5pp
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0pp
Will Dom Mar Fan win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 46¢0.0pp
Will Kody Steele win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 53¢0.0pp
Will the fight be won by submission?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
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- 50¢0.0pp
O/U 2.5 Rounds
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- 36¢-7.0pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Dom Mar Fan" if Dom Mar Fan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kody Steele at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Kody Steele" if Kody Steele is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).