Fight to Go the Distance?
Probability
43¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-7.0pp
24h Vol
$7.84
Liquidity
$539.78
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (52.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-8.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 43¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 52.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 10, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (52.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 132.3h
- 15:43SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-7.0pp over the last 24h, now 43¢.
Biggest hourly move: +23.5pp at 22:00 (to 73¢).
Show top 8 of 12 hourly moves
- 06:00 · +9.5pp → 59¢
- 05:00 · +9.5pp → 59¢
- 03:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 02:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 00:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 22:00 · +23.5pp → 73¢
- 21:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
- 19:00 · +23.0pp → 73¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki at UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland, scheduled for May 9, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 23, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
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