Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$22.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $22.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
- 3
Expiry in 14h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 14 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 14.3h
- 13:40SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 14h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 46¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 46¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 50¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Jafel Filho and Lucas Rocha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).