SportsExpires May 3, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)

Probability

68¢

1h

+13.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$11.11

Liquidity

$452.74

Probability (last 7 days)

+17.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 19:00Apr 25, 2026, 18:21
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 178h with open resolution ambiguity.

  2. 2

    Wide spread — 15.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 177.6h

    LOW
  • 18:21Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 178h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 68¢.

Biggest hourly move: -28.0pp at 2d ago (to 41¢).

Show all 37 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 18:21 · -4.0pp → 68¢
  • 17:00 · -16.5pp → 55¢
  • 15:00 · -16.0pp → 56¢
  • 14:00 · -16.5pp → 55¢
  • 12:00 · +22.0pp → 68¢
  • 11:00 · +22.0pp → 68¢
  • 09:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
  • 08:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
  • 06:00 · +19.0pp → 68¢
  • 05:00 · +21.0pp → 69¢
  • 04:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 66¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 66¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 62¢
  • 1d ago · -27.0pp → 43¢
  • 1d ago · -8.0pp → 62¢
  • 1d ago · -4.0pp → 66¢
  • 2d ago · -28.0pp → 41¢
  • 2d ago · -28.0pp → 41¢
  • 2d ago · -7.0pp → 62¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 71¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 70¢
  • 2d ago · +5.5pp → 70¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
  • 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
  • 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
  • 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
  • 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
  • 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
  • 3d ago · +17.0pp → 67¢
  • 3d ago · +17.0pp → 67¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Junior Tafa" if Junior Tafa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kevin Christian at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Kevin Christian" if Kevin Christian is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.