UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)
Probability
68¢
1h
+13.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$11.11
Liquidity
$452.74
Probability (last 7 days)
+17.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 178h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 15.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 177.6h
- 18:21SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 178h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+1.5pp over the last 24h, now 68¢.
Biggest hourly move: -28.0pp at 2d ago (to 41¢).
Show all 37 hour-by-hour ticks
- 18:21 · -4.0pp → 68¢
- 17:00 · -16.5pp → 55¢
- 15:00 · -16.0pp → 56¢
- 14:00 · -16.5pp → 55¢
- 12:00 · +22.0pp → 68¢
- 11:00 · +22.0pp → 68¢
- 09:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
- 08:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
- 06:00 · +19.0pp → 68¢
- 05:00 · +21.0pp → 69¢
- 04:00 · +20.5pp → 68¢
- 1d ago · -3.5pp → 66¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 66¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 62¢
- 1d ago · -27.0pp → 43¢
- 1d ago · -8.0pp → 62¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 66¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -28.0pp → 41¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 62¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 71¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 70¢
- 2d ago · +5.5pp → 70¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
- 2d ago · +7.0pp → 72¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
- 3d ago · +6.5pp → 72¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · -4.0pp → 46¢
- 3d ago · +17.0pp → 67¢
- 3d ago · +17.0pp → 67¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Junior Tafa" if Junior Tafa is officially declared the winner of the fight against Kevin Christian at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Kevin Christian" if Kevin Christian is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (15.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.