UFC Fight Night: Lucas Brennan vs. Francis Marshall (Lightweight, Prelims)
Probability
21¢
1h
+1.0pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$3.9K
Liquidity
$38.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 21¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 13h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Expiry in 13h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 13 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 12.9h
- 15:07SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 13h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -36.0pp
to 20¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 46¢-13.0pp
Fight to Go the Distance?
Other · Vol $32.09
- 28¢-22.0pp
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 9¢-38.0pp
Will Lucas Brennan win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 20¢+2.5pp
Will Francis Marshall win by KO or TKO?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 32¢-18.5pp
Will the fight be won by submission?
Other · Vol $0.00
- 78¢+27.5pp
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 65¢+14.5pp
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $0.00
- 55¢+2.0pp
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Other · Vol $594.40
- 0¢-42.4pp
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Lucas Brennan" if Lucas Brennan is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.ufc.com/events
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).