Fight to Go the Distance?
Probability
45¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$28.76
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 45¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 8h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 10.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 8h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 8 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 03:59ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 8.3h
- 19:43SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 8h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-4.5pp over the last 24h, now 45¢.
Biggest hourly move: -9.0pp at 21:00 (to 41¢).
Show all 20 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:43 · -5.5pp → 45¢
- 18:00 · -5.5pp → 45¢
- 15:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 14:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 12:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 11:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 09:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 08:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 06:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 05:00 · -5.0pp → 46¢
- 03:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 02:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 00:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 23:00 · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 21:00 · -9.0pp → 41¢
- 1d ago · +8.0pp → 58¢
- 1d ago · -4.0pp → 47¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 46¢
- 1d ago · -4.5pp → 46¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Brennan and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." Draws decided by the judges' scorecards after all scheduled rounds are completed will resolve "Yes." Technical decisions or technical draws declared before all rounds are completed will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (10.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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