SportsExpires May 17, 2026
Creator

UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Probability

71¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$60.00

Liquidity

$255.45

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 17, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official UFC data
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
Apr 26, 2026, 23:00May 3, 2026, 22:13
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 44.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 317.8h

    LOW
  • 22:13Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 71¢.

Biggest hourly move: -26.0pp at 4d ago (to 50¢).

Show top 8 of 64 hourly moves
  • 07:00 · +26.0pp → 76¢
  • 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
  • 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Malcolm Wellmaker" if Malcolm Wellmaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Juan Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Juan Diaz" if Juan Diaz is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.