UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)
Probability
71¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$60.00
Liquidity
$255.45
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 44.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (44.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 317.8h
- 22:13SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 71¢.
Biggest hourly move: -26.0pp at 4d ago (to 50¢).
Show top 8 of 64 hourly moves
- 07:00 · +26.0pp → 76¢
- 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 3d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
- 4d ago · -26.0pp → 50¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Malcolm Wellmaker" if Malcolm Wellmaker is officially declared the winner of the fight against Juan Diaz at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Juan Diaz" if Juan Diaz is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Alerts
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