Will the fight be won by submission?
Probability
37¢
1h
+10.0pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$174.22
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (71.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
-13.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 37¢; +10.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 71.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (71.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 125.9h
- 22:08SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+9.5pp over the last 24h, now 37¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.5pp at 2d ago (to 26¢).
Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
- 00:00 · -23.5pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -23.5pp → 28¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 27¢
- 1d ago · -24.5pp → 27¢
- 2d ago · -24.5pp → 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Modestas Bukauskas and Rodolfo Bellato at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
ufc Reason
UFC — Sports.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the fight be won by submission?"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 22:08:21 GMT, YES is priced at 37% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.5pp in the last 24 hours, +10.0pp in the last hour, and -13.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/events.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $174.22. Spread between best bid and best ask: 71.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
