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SportsExpires Apr 26, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Probability

42¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-3.5pp

24h Vol

$16.6K

Liquidity

$407.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:34
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 5 factors
  1. 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $16.6k traded against $407.4k of visible liquidity (0.04× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  3. 3

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  4. 4

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 13h with open resolution ambiguity.

  5. 5

    Expiry in 13h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 13 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 03:59Resolve

    Market resolves in 13.4h

    HIGH
  • 14:34Signal

    Signal · Momentum down

    Probability moved down 3.5pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:34Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 13h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -5.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Ryan Spann" if Ryan Spann is officially declared the winner of the fight against Marcus Buchecha at UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, scheduled for April 25, 2026. It will resolve to "Marcus Buchecha" if Marcus Buchecha is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 9, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.ufc.com/events
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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