Loading shell…
SportsExpires May 3, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Shamil Gaziev vs. Brando Pericic (Heavyweight, Prelims)

Probability

43¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.5pp

24h Vol

$12.43

Liquidity

$1.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.5pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:45
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 1 factor
  1. 1

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 181.2h

    LOW
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 39¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Shamil Gaziev" if Shamil Gaziev is officially declared the winner of the fight against Brando Pericic at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Brando Pericic" if Brando Pericic is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
https://www.ufc.com/events
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).