UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, Prelims)
Probability
25¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$1.28
Liquidity
$921.84
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 25¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 174.0h
Price movement
-4.0pp over the last 24h, now 25¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at 12:00 (to 29¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -4.5pp → 29¢
- 11:00 · -4.0pp → 30¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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O/U 0.5 Rounds
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Will Themba Gorimbo win by KO or TKO?
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Themba Gorimbo" if Themba Gorimbo is officially declared the winner of the fight against Jonathan Micallef at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Jonathan Micallef" if Jonathan Micallef is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primary
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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