U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?

1. 1

   Down 4pp over 24h

   Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1570h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $24.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation on Mexican soil by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.