SportsExpires May 31, 2026
Creator

Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner

Probability

48¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$5.00

Liquidity

$1.5K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 1h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
vlr.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 31, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
48¢
May 30, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 31, 2026, 02:42 UTC
updated 08:18:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-31T08-18Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 1h.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $1.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 09:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 0.7h

    HIGH
  • 08:18Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 1h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 48¢.

updated 08:18:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 08:18:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Leviatán Esports and NRG in the Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Stage 2, initially scheduled for May 30 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Leviatán Esports" if Leviatán Esports win Map 2 against NRG. This market will resolve to "NRG" if NRG win Map 2 against Leviatán Esports. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner"?

As of Sun, 31 May 2026 08:18:03 GMT, YES is priced at 48% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 31, 2026 (2026-05-31T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket