SportsExpires May 30, 2026
Creator

Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX - Map 2 Winner

Probability

100¢

1h

+41.0pp

24h

+43.0pp

24h Vol

$58.2K

Liquidity

$52.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 30, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
vlr.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Market expires May 30, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 25, 2026, 06:00 UTCMay 30, 2026, 10:03 UTC
updated 10:03:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-30T10-03Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 43pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +41.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 43.0pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 12:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 1.9h

    HIGH
  • 10:03Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 43.0pp in 24h with 1.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 10:03Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+43.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

Biggest hourly move: +43.0pp at 10:00 (to 100¢).

Show top 8 of 14 hourly moves
  • 10:00 · +43.0pp → 100¢
  • 08:00 · -4.5pp → 53¢
  • May 28, 08:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 57¢
  • May 28, 06:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 57¢
  • May 28, 00:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 57¢
  • May 27, 22:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 57¢
  • May 27, 21:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 57¢
  • May 27, 18:00 UTC · +7.0pp → 57¢
updated 10:03:06 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:03:06 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventValorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket semifinal 1 match between Nongshim RedForce and DRX in the Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2, initially scheduled for May 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nongshim RedForce" if Nongshim RedForce win Map 2 against DRX. This market will resolve to "DRX" if DRX win Map 2 against Nongshim RedForce. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX - Map 2 Winner"?

As of Sat, 30 May 2026 10:03:06 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +43.0pp in the last 24 hours, +41.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 30, 2026 (2026-05-30T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$58.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $58.2K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $52.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket