SportsExpires May 23, 2026
Creator

Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner

Probability

55¢

1h

+5.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$52.55

Liquidity

$328.80

Research loop

Inspect the market

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

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Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 23, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
vlr.gg
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 23, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
56¢
May 23, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 23, 2026, 11:02 UTC
updated 11:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-23T11-51Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 2h.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 14:10Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2.3h

    HIGH
  • 11:51Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 55¢.

updated 11:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 11:51:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

8
Same eventValorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the Valorant Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Rex Regum Qeon and Gen.G Esports in the Esports World Cup Pacific Qualifier Stage 2, initially scheduled for May 23 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Rex Regum Qeon" if Rex Regum Qeon win Map 4 against Gen.G Esports. This market will resolve to "Gen.G Esports" if Gen.G Esports win Map 4 against Rex Regum Qeon. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 4. If Map 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

world cup

Reason

World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Gen.G Esports - Map 4 Winner"?

As of Sat, 23 May 2026 11:51:56 GMT, YES is priced at 55% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +5.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 23, 2026 (2026-05-23T14:10:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$52.55 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $52.55. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $328.80. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

16 wallets
Open on Polymarket