SportsExpires May 7, 2026
Creator

Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs

Probability

93¢

1h

+22.0pp

24h

+0.0pp

24h Vol

$140.0K

Liquidity

$10.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 2h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 7, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 6, 2026, 14:00May 6, 2026, 23:36
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-06T23-37Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 12.9× turnover

    $140.0k traded against $10.8k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 2h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $10.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 02:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 2.4h

    HIGH
  • 23:37Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h.

    LOW

Price movement

+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 93¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between Shopify Rebellion Black and Division One in the VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 6 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion Black" if Shopify Rebellion Black win the match against Division One. This market will resolve to "Division One" if Division One win the match against Shopify Rebellion Black. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Sports hard marker

Matched term

valorant

Reason

Question text matched the sports hard-marker "valorant" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs"?

As of Wed, 06 May 2026 23:37:13 GMT, YES is priced at 93% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +22.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T02:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$140.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $140.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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