Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 Winner
Probability
100¢
1h
+12.4pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$29.9K
Liquidity
$70.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 1 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 7, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 02:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 1.3h
- 00:42SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 1h. UMA dispute is active.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
10- 95¢0.0
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs
Sports · Vol $141.3K
- 10¢0.0
Games Total: O/U 4.5
Sports · Vol $104.25
- 55¢0.0
Map Handicap: SRB (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $711.40
- 1¢0.0
Map Handicap: D1 (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion Black (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $154.22
Market Description
This market refers to the Valorant Lower bracket final match between Shopify Rebellion Black and Division One in the VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 6 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Shopify Rebellion Black" if Shopify Rebellion Black win Map 4 against Division One. This market will resolve to "Division One" if Division One win Map 4 against Shopify Rebellion Black. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 4 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 4. If Map 4 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
valorantReason
Question text matched the sports hard-marker "valorant" — runs before rules to catch upstream mis-tagging.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One - Map 4 Winner"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:42:28 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +12.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 7, 2026 (2026-05-07T02:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://vlr.gg.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://vlr.gg. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$29.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $29.9K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $70.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
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