What will the fully diluted market cap of Opensea’s token be 1 week after it starts trading?
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$210.42
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with YES price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: CoinGecko
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task What will the fully diluted market cap of Opensea’s token be 1 week after it starts trading? State: Resolved YES — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief What will the fully diluted market cap of Opensea’s token be 1 week after it starts trading? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 18:48SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This is a scalar market on what the fully diluted market cap of Opensea’s token will be in USD 1 week after it begins being actively traded. The "fully diluted market cap" is determined by multiplying the price of the token by the total supply of tokens. The lower bound for this market is $1,000,000,000 and the upper bound is $7,000,000,000. The date by which the token is actively traded refers to the first date the token reaches over $10,000 in volume according to CoinGecko. The fully diluted market cap 1 week after this date, at 12:00 PM ET, will be used for this market’s resolution. For example, if the Opensea token began actively trading on a Tuesday (in ET), the fully diluted market cap of the token would be checked at 12:00 PM ET the following Tuesday in order to resolve this market. If the total supply is infinite, the circulating supply/non-diluted market cap will be used instead to resolve this market. If the CoinGecko website is unavailable at the time of this check, or relevant data is unavailable on CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap will be used instead. If both CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap are down, or relevant data is unavailable, then another credible source will be chosen. If Opensea does not release a token by December 31, 2021, 11:59:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to $4,000,000,000. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with Opensea token’s fully diluted market cap value in USD. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of each Outcome Token is capped at $1 and $0. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
market capReason
Market-cap ranking markets are Business.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "What will the fully diluted market cap of Opensea’s token be 1 week after it starts trading?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:48:56 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2021 (2021-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.coingecko.com/en.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.coingecko.com/en. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $82.3K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $210.42. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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