What will US GDP growth be in Q1 2021?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$0.01
Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTypeOfficial statistics
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Apr 29, 2021
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarybea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTypeOfficial statistics
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Bureau of Economic
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task What will US GDP growth be in Q1 2021? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official statistics and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief What will US GDP growth be in Q1 2021? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This is a scalar market on what U.S. GDP growth will be when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its “advance estimate” of US GDP growth for Q1 2021. The lower bound for this market will be 6.0% and the upper bound for this market will be 8.0%. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value if the final value is between these bounds, but if the final value exceeds either the upper or lower bound, the price of Long and Short shares are capped at $1 and $0. You can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short price corresponds with GDP growth figures. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s “advance estimate” of annualized real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2021, as reported in its press release announcing this figure currently scheduled for release on April 29, 8:30 AM ET (bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). This market will resolve to GDP growth percentage to the nearest tenths place (e.g. 6.0%, 6.1%, 6.2%, etc). This market will resolve when the BEA advance estimate for Q1 2021 GDP Growth becomes available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
gdpReason
Question text contains "gdp" — matched the Macro keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "What will US GDP growth be in Q1 2021?"?
As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 19:53:13 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Apr 29, 2021 (2021-04-29T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $3.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.01. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.