Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April?
Probability
32¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.5pp
24h Vol
$650.71
Liquidity
$3.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+8.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 3pp over 24h
Now 32¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 393h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $3.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 392.6h
- 15:21SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 393h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 29¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 29¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 30¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 30¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for "Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average" lies when the April data point is published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111). The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the BLS's CPI release. The April release is presently scheduled for May 12, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).