Will Adele attend the Met Gala?
Probability
51¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+25.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$29.03
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 25pp over 24h
Now 51¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 203h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 86.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 202.9h
- 13:07SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 203h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:07PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.5pp
to 51¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 26.0pp
to 51¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (86.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).