Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-adidas-be-the-brand-of-boot-worn-by-the-golden-boot-winner-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-20260623194235616 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-adidas-be-the-brand-of-boot-worn-by-the-golden-boot-winner-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-20260623194235616/markdown.

SportsMulti-outcomeExpires —

Creator

Will Adidas be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Probability

49¢

+7.0pp

24h

+6.5pp

24h Vol

$209.06

Liquidity

$73.87

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

ILLIQUID

Reason

Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: —
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

49¢

Jun 24, 2026, 18:00 UTCJun 26, 2026, 21:01 UTC

updated 21:01:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-26T21-01Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 49¢; +7.0pp in the last hour.
02
Spread cost
Wide spread — 21.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability drops back below 44¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk

End date: —
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Not stated explicitly in the metadata. Read the full market rules below before treating any move as a resolved fact.
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Wide spread (21.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

liquidity sensitive

Trust transition

Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome.

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Adidas be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Identify the primary resolution source named in the market rules and confirm whether it can independently settle the outcome. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Adidas be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

No timeline events available yet. The timeline fills in as trades land, signals fire, or the price moves more than 3pp in an hour.

updated 21:01:58 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 21:01:58 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventWorld Cup: Boot Sponsor Worn by Golden Boot Winner

Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve in favor of the brand producing the on-field shoe worn during matches by the winner of the Golden Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the winner wears more than one brand during the World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined which brand was worn by the winner within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be photos or videos from the World Cup, or official media from the brand and/or winning player.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Adidas be the brand of boot worn by the Golden Boot winner at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"?

As of Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:01:58 GMT, YES is priced at 49% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +6.5pp in the last 24 hours, +7.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

Resolution date is not yet set on Polymarket. Settlement source when posted: the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$209.06 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $660.65. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $73.87. Spread between best bid and best ask: 21.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket