Where can I see the live data, signals, and large-trade flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-analog-devices-adi-be-the-best-performing-company-in-the-nasdaq-100-during-december-2025 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-analog-devices-adi-be-the-best-performing-company-in-the-nasdaq-100-during-december-2025/markdown.

MacroMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2025Closed

Creator

Will Analog Devices (ADI) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025?

Probability

0¢

+0.1pp

24h

-1.3pp

24h Vol

$0.00

Liquidity

$0.00

Historical archiveResolved NO

Orrery restored this market from Polymarket's closed-market records. Treat the numbers below as last-known market context, then verify the resolution source before citing the outcome.

How Orrery handles status →

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

Markets Detail Watchlist Alert Brief

Canonical status

confidence: medium

Source status (Polymarket)

active · closed · uma=resolved

Derived status (Orrery)

RESOLVED NO

Reason

Upstream marked the market closed/settled with NO price dominant.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2025
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during December 2025
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.9pp 7d

No price history available

updated 17:44:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-05T17-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

01
Price move
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 0¢; +0.1pp in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2025
UMA status: resolved
Resolution source: Primary
to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during December 2025
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Share risk card Read full market rules on Polymarket

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

officially resolved

Trust transition

The market appears resolved. The useful check is whether the source and final oracle state match the displayed outcome.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during December 2025

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Analog Devices (ADI) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025? State: Resolved NO — officially resolved Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Analog Devices (ADI) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025? State: officially resolved Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

Criteria covered

Reviewed

Awaiting review

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

17:44Signal
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
LOW

Price movement

-1.3pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

updated 17:44:17 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flow Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 17:44:17 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Category · Macro

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the company in the Nasdaq-100 that achieves the highest performance during December 2025. Performance will be measured as the percentage change in each specified security's price during this market's timeframe, calculated by comparing the closing price for the last official trading day prior to this timeframe (November 28, 2025) to the closing price for the last official trading day within this timeframe (December 31, 2025). All companies that are constituents of the Nasdaq-100 as of market issuance will be eligible for consideration, regardless of whether they are removed before the market's resolution date. Any company added to the index after market creation will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the “Historical Quotes” page for the specified ticker on Nasdaq at: nasdaq.com. Only closing prices will be used for all calculations; total return measures will not be applied. If multiple specified companies exhibit exactly the same highest performance, the market will resolve to the company whose ticker appears first in alphabetical order. If any unspecified company achieves the highest performance during the relevant period, the market will resolve to “Other”. If either of the relevant trading days are shortened, the official closing price published for that session will be used. If any relevant day lacks a specified closing price, the last valid historical closing price offered by the resolution source will be used. Updates to historical prices displayed after resolution will not be considered.

Why this category?

confidence: high

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Analog Devices (ADI) be the best performing company in the Nasdaq 100 during December 2025?"?

As of Fri, 05 Jun 2026 17:44:17 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.1pp in the last hour, and -4.9pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2025 (2025-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (resolved). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

11 wallets

YES

0xa5ef…296651

Open on Polymarket