Will anyone say "We Are So Back" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?
Probability
36¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+17.5pp
24h Vol
$9.41
Liquidity
$91.63
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Methodology explanation
Review-only opportunity
No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.
Why this market is in review
signalResolution-source risk
45% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Paper-only action
paper-onlyReview-only opportunity
read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.
Risk / veto readback
reviewResolution review required
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
Source evidence
source4 mapped surfaces
283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.
Signals
- Resolution-source riskwatch
45% source confidence on this opportunity row.
Veto / blockers
- Resolution review requiredwatch
The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.
- Confidence below paper gatewatch
Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.
Costs / sizing
- Research score
- Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
- Capacity
- Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
- Liquidity
- Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuingTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 18pp over 24h
Now 36¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 7h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $92 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 7 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jul 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuingTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jul 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: the events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuing
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will anyone say "We Are So Back" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will anyone say "We Are So Back" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 23:59Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 6.7h
- 17:19SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 7h.
Price movement
+17.5pp over the last 24h, now 36¢.
Biggest hourly move: -25.0pp at Jul 3, 16:00 UTC (to 18¢).
Show top 8 of 18 hourly moves
- 14:00 · -8.5pp → 33¢
- 12:00 · -9.0pp → 33¢
- 23:00 · +8.5pp → 51¢
- 21:00 · -24.0pp → 18¢
- 20:00 · -24.5pp → 18¢
- 18:00 · -25.0pp → 18¢
- Jul 3, 17:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 18¢
- Jul 3, 16:00 UTC · -25.0pp → 18¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the English live broadcast of the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, scheduled for July 4, 2026, with coverage beginning at approximately 10:30 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market will resolve based on the events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuing uninterrupted through the conclusion of the men's competition, including the women's competition and any eat-off or tiebreaker, if applicable. All remarks made live at any point during the broadcast, including pre-contest, between-contest, and post-contest commentary, will be considered, up until the broadcast ends. If the contest is definitively cancelled, postponed, or otherwise does not air by July 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this contest is interrupted, abbreviated, or only partially aired, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official English live broadcast of the 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on ESPN platforms and ABC. Only remarks made live during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will anyone say "We Are So Back" during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?"?
As of Sat, 04 Jul 2026 17:19:38 GMT, YES is priced at 36% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +17.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jul 4, 2026 (2026-07-04T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$9.41 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.41. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $91.63. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.