Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?
Probability
54¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$1.05
Liquidity
$206.35
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (78.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 78.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 931.6h
- 04:25SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.
Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 1d ago (to 55¢).
Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
- 10:00 · +11.0pp → 55¢
- 07:00 · +28.5pp → 55¢
- 05:00 · +28.0pp → 55¢
- 1d ago · +28.5pp → 55¢
- 2d ago · +11.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · +11.0pp → 56¢
- 3d ago · -22.5pp → 26¢
- 4d ago · -21.5pp → 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after June 21, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Roland Garros (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jun 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (78.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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