UnclassifiedMulti-outcomeExpires Jun 8, 2026

Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles?

Probability

54¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.5pp

24h Vol

$1.05

Liquidity

$206.35

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 8, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Wide spread (78.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+7.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 04:00Apr 30, 2026, 03:42
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

  • 02
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 78.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 931.6h

    LOW
  • 04:25Signal

    Resolution risk

    Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.

    LOW

Price movement

-0.5pp over the last 24h, now 54¢.

Biggest hourly move: +28.5pp at 1d ago (to 55¢).

Show top 8 of 43 hourly moves
  • 10:00 · +11.0pp → 55¢
  • 07:00 · +28.5pp → 55¢
  • 05:00 · +28.0pp → 55¢
  • 1d ago · +28.5pp → 55¢
  • 2d ago · +11.5pp → 56¢
  • 2d ago · +11.0pp → 56¢
  • 3d ago · -22.5pp → 26¢
  • 4d ago · -21.5pp → 26¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament scheduled for May 18 - June 7, 2026. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 Roland Garros Women’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after June 21, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Roland Garros (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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