Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Wallachia Season 8?
Probability
21¢
1h
-13.0pp
24h
-4.0pp
24h Vol
$661.80
Liquidity
$824.48
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 4 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 21¢; -13.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 12.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Expiry in 9h
Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 9.2h
- 14:47SignalMEDIUM
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 20¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 21.0pp
to 38¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 25.0pp
to 42¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 15.5pp
to 43¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 14.0pp
to 42¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 13.5pp
to 41¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.5pp
to 40¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 34¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 34¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 36¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 35¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 36¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 35¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 34¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 26¢
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 23¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 24¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -14.5pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.0pp
to 24¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the PGL Wallachia Season 8 tournament, currently scheduled for April 16th - April 26th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by May 3rd, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, PGL (pglesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/dota2/PGL/Wallachia/8) may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Apr 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).