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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Apr 26, 2026

Will Aurora Gaming win PGL Wallachia Season 8?

Probability

21¢

1h

-13.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$661.80

Liquidity

$824.48

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 14:47
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 4pp over 24h

    Now 21¢; -13.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Expiry in 9h

    Market resolves within 72 hours — the move likely reflects information about the resolution event itself rather than longer-horizon repricing. Verify the resolution source.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 9 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolves in 9.2h

    HIGH
  • 14:47Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 9h with open resolution ambiguity.

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 21.0pp

    to 38¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 25.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 15.5pp

    to 43¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 14.0pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 13.5pp

    to 41¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 11.5pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 36¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -7.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 25¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the winner of the PGL Wallachia Season 8 tournament, currently scheduled for April 16th - April 26th, 2026. If this tournament is postponed, canceled, or a winner has not been declared by May 3rd, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed team name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, PGL (pglesports.com). However, a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Liquipedia at https://liquipedia.net/dota2/PGL/Wallachia/8) may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 26, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Apr 26, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).