Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Probability
28¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+1.0pp
24h Vol
$122.52
Liquidity
$10.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 1pp over 24h
Now 28¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $10.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 488.2h
- 15:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 488h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 15:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 30¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 30¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 28¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 01:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 27¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 25¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 28¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 27¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 25¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 25¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.5pp
to 28¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 26¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 16, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).