Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?
Probability
42¢
1h
-2.0pp
24h
+20.0pp
24h Vol
$1.9K
Liquidity
$1.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 40h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "Backrooms" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 20pp over 24h
Now 42¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 40h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 8.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 40 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 15, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto how much "Backrooms" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekendLinkTypeAmbiguous wording
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (8.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.the-numbers.com/
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Settlement state
requiredCheck whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.
Current evidence: Near expiry
Orrery verification task Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jun 15, 12:00 UTCScheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 39.6h
- 20:21SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 40h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+20.0pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Biggest hourly move: +37.5pp at 11:00 (to 64¢).
Show top 8 of 9 hourly moves
- 19:00 · +26.0pp → 46¢
- 17:00 · +21.0pp → 48¢
- 15:00 · +25.0pp → 52¢
- 14:00 · +27.0pp → 54¢
- 12:00 · +37.5pp → 64¢
- 11:00 · +37.5pp → 64¢
- 09:00 · +33.0pp → 62¢
- 08:00 · +31.5pp → 59¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to how much "Backrooms" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its third weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (June 12 - June 14) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
box officeReason
Question text contains "box office" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 20:21:32 GMT, YES is priced at 42% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +20.0pp in the last 24 hours, -2.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.the-numbers.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.the-numbers.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$1.9K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 8.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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