EntertainmentMulti-outcomeExpires May 12, 2026
Creator

Will Belgium win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?

Probability

1¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-10.9pp

24h Vol

$20.00

Liquidity

$7.8K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED NO

Reason

YES price is near 0¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-out, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 12, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Link
eurovision.tv
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 12, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 7, 2026, 17:00May 10, 2026, 12:15
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T12-15Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 11pp over 24h

    Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 36h.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $7.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 36 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 35.7h

    HIGH
  • 12:15Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 36h.

    LOW

Price movement

-10.9pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.5pp at 05:00 (to 1¢).

Show 6 hourly moves
  • 12:15 · -19.9pp → 1¢
  • 11:00 · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • 10:00 · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • 09:00 · -36.4pp → 1¢
  • 07:00 · -36.0pp → 1¢
  • 05:00 · -37.5pp → 1¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventEurovision 2026: First Semi-Final Winner
Category · Entertainment

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Entertainment

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

eurovision

Reason

Question text contains "eurovision" — matched the Entertainment keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Belgium win the first Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 12:15:39 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -10.9pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$20.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $175.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $7.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.5¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

9 wallets
Open on Polymarket