Will Bernie Sanders say "Legislation" in Michigan?
Probability
57¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$1.63
Liquidity
$37.20
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryact.berniesanders.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 19h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 68.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 19 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 3, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryact.berniesanders.comTypeSource not classifiedConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 3, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (68.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 00:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 19.2h
- 04:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 19h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
Bernie Sanders is scheduled to speak in Detroit, Michigan on his Fighting Oligarchy tour on May 3, 2026 (https://act.berniesanders.com/signup/rsvp-oligarchy-detroit/?source=website-oligarchy). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bernie Sanders says the listed term during events in Detroit scheduled for May 3, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Sanders is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g., joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however, "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market is explicitly about Bernie Sanders's remarks in Detroit scheduled for May 3, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by May 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.
Alerts
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