Will "Best friend" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?
Probability
1¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-9.4pp
24h Vol
$220.66
Liquidity
$149.63
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.
Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 1¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $150 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryto the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://wwwLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 8, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 01:03SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 1d agoScheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 25h ago; not yet resolved upstream
Price movement
-9.4pp over the last 24h, now 1¢.
Biggest hourly move: -39.5pp at 09:00 (to 10¢).
Show 7 hourly moves
- 01:03 · -9.9pp → 1¢
- 00:00 · -9.9pp → 1¢
- 23:00 · +36.5pp → 47¢
- 21:00 · +37.0pp → 48¢
- 13:00 · +3.0pp → 13¢
- 09:00 · -39.5pp → 10¢
- 08:00 · -39.0pp → 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The All-In Podcast is scheduled to release episodes every Friday. (https://allin.com/episodes) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the next released episode of the All-In Podcast. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). This market will resolve according to the next episode of the All-In Podcast added to the official YouTube playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLn5MTSAqaf8peDZQ57QkJBzewJU1aUokl. Specials or other videos posted on the YouTube channel but not included on the All-In Podcast playlist will not be considered. If no such episode of the All-In Podcast is aired by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be audio of the event.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
podcastReason
Question text contains "podcast" — matched the Culture keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will "Best friend" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?"?
As of Sat, 09 May 2026 01:03:35 GMT, YES is priced at 1% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -9.4pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 8, 2026 (2026-05-08T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$220.66 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $231.48. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $149.63. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
