CryptoExpires Jul 1, 2026
Creator

Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?

Probability

22¢

1h

-5.3pp

24h

-3.3pp

24h Vol

$151.1K

Liquidity

$32.1K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Momentum / follow-through

71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Paper governor not run here

This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Momentum / follow-throughclear

    71% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Paper governor not run heresource

    This card explains the opportunity row only; a paper scan is still required before a paper intent or veto exists.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
53
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$3k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$32k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1microstructure_quality_kernelexecution_markout_kernelpaper_governor_policy+2
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jul 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Binance spot pair
Link
binance.com
Type
Exchange price
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+9.2pp 7d
1007550250
23¢
Jun 18, 2026, 19:00 UTCJun 25, 2026, 18:11 UTC
updated 18:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-25T18-12Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 3pp over 24h

    Now 22¢; -5.3pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 4.7× turnover

    $151.1k traded against $32.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 3.3pp in 24h with 4.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: Binance spot pair

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary exchange price source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jul 1, 04:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 129.8h

    LOW
  • 18:12Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 3.3pp in 24h with 4.7× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-3.3pp over the last 24h, now 22¢.

Biggest hourly move: +35.0pp at 14:00 (to 40¢).

Show top 8 of 44 hourly moves
  • 18:11 · +15.0pp → 23¢
  • 17:00 · +21.1pp → 26¢
  • 16:00 · +18.2pp → 23¢
  • 14:00 · +35.0pp → 40¢
  • 20:00 · +13.8pp → 19¢
  • Jun 24, 18:00 UTC · +22.3pp → 28¢
  • Jun 24, 17:00 UTC · +16.1pp → 22¢
  • Jun 21, 08:00 UTC · -8.3pp → 5¢
updated 18:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 18:12:03 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

10
Same eventWhat price will Bitcoin hit in June?
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?"?

As of Thu, 25 Jun 2026 18:12:03 GMT, YES is priced at 22% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.3pp in the last 24 hours, -5.3pp in the last hour, and +9.2pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 1, 2026 (2026-07-01T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$151.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $2.6M. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $32.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket