SportsMulti-outcomeExpires May 11, 2026
Creator

Will Charlotte Hornets receive the second overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?

Probability

0¢

1h

-9.4pp

24h

-48.9pp

24h Vol

$5.00

Liquidity

$224.1K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active · uma=proposed

Derived status (Orrery)

UMA PENDING

Reason

Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.

Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 11, 2026
UMA status
proposed
Resolution source
Primary
Official NBA data
Type
Official sports result
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • UMA status: proposed
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 7, 2026, 18:00May 10, 2026, 21:48
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-10T21-49Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 49pp over 24h

    Now 0¢; -9.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 48.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 00:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 2.2h

    HIGH
  • 21:49Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 48.9pp in 24h with 0.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH
  • 21:49Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 2h. UMA dispute is active.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-48.9pp over the last 24h, now 0¢.

Biggest hourly move: -37.5pp at 20:00 (to 10¢).

Show 2 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · -37.5pp → 10¢
  • 20:00 · -37.5pp → 10¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

9
Same event2026 NBA Draft Lottery: 2nd Pick
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve based on which team holds the draft rights to the second overall pick at the conclusion of the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery. If a listed team holds another franchise's draft pick via trade at the time of the lottery, and that traded pick results in the second overall selection, the holder of the draft rights is considered the winner, not the team whose record determined the lottery odds. If a traded pick is subject to protection (e.g., "top-5 protected"), the winner is determined by which team ultimately receives the second overall pick after all protections are applied. If the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery is postponed, not completed, or no team has been announced as the recipient of the second overall pick by July 9, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NBA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Charlotte Hornets receive the second overall pick at the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery?"?

As of Sun, 10 May 2026 21:49:01 GMT, YES is priced at 0% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -48.9pp in the last 24 hours, -9.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed).

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from UMA optimistic oracle (proposed). Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$5.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $5.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $224.1K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

2 wallets
Open on Polymarket